中国造纸业能源需求与CO_2排放情景分析(Ⅱ)

On China's paper products and their situational analysis for energy demand and CO_2 discharge(Ⅱ)

利用NICE模型,首先计算了中国造纸业的纸浆需求,进而,根据国际先进和国内目前的水平两种能耗情景,计算了中国造纸业的能源需求和CO_2排放。我们认为:造纸业必须解决行业内部技术水平不平衡的问题。技术落后的企业必须进行技术改造,要不然就必定会让技术先进的现代企业所取代。另外,我国还必须采取必要的手段,努力提高废纸回收率。

With the NICE model, the pulp demand of China＇s paper industry is calculated and then energy demand and CO2 emission are calculated based on two energy intensity situations： the internationally advanced situation and the current domestic energy intensity situation （BAU）. It concludes that the paper industry must solve the off-balance of technological levels within the industry. The enterprises with backward technologies must carry out technical renovation, otherwise they must be replaced by the modern enterprises with advanced technology. In addition, necessary measures must be adopted to increase the recovery rate of waste paper.