中外主要港口城市可持续发展能力的比较研究

Comparison of Sustainable Development Capacity of Major Chiese and Interratical Port Cities

本文在阐述港口城市可持续发展能力内涵和外延的基础上，选取我国7个主要港口城市以及国际航运中心城市鹿特丹、新加坡和香港，构建评价指标体系，采用二级模糊综合评价法，评价并分析比较国内国际主要港口城市可持续发展的能力。研究结果表明，我国主要港口城市在港口生产能力上的评价值为0．055—0．645之间，上海等城市与国际大港差距较小；但在经济发展能力、资源环境支撑能力、智力支持能力和社会协调能力等方面，评价均值分别为0．278、0．529、0．255，仅相当于国际港口城市同类评价值的50．3％、79．1％和33％。因此，可持续发展整体能力评价值在0．239～0．465之间，只及国际城市的50％，国内港口城市与国际差距较大。从可持续发展能力的时间变化看，国内港口城市在经济支持和港口生产能力方面的提升速度相对略快，但智力支持、社会支持能力的增速变化远不及国际城市。为此，应通过发展智力支持系统、港口城市制度创新、港城和区域经济一体化、产业延伸和腹地建设与扩张等战略，提升国内港口城市的发展能力，带动中国在全球经济一体化进程中的可持续发展。

Chinese port cities play an important role in promoting the development of national economy and society. This paper illustrates the scientific definition of the sustainable development capacity of port cities. Accordingly, an evaluation index system is constructed, which is composed of such subsystems as port production capacity, economic development capability, resource and environment intellectual provision capacity and social coordination capacity. International Singapore, Rotterdam and Hong Kong are compared with such Chinese port cities as bearing capacity, port cities such as Shanghai Tianjin, Ningbo, etc. By the use of fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, the sustainable , Shenzhen, development capacity of the main port cities in China is evaluated. The evaluation results show that, in port production subsystem, the evaluating value of the domestic port cities is value of 0. 216, 37.5 percent of world average. In economic is between 0. 196 and 0.410, with the mean value of 0.278, ranged from 0.055 to 0. 645, with the mean development capability subsystem, the value 50.3 percent of world average. In resource and environment bearing subsystem, the value is between 0. 333 and 0.644, with the mean value of 0.529, 79.1 percent of world average. In intellectual provision subsystem, the value is below 0.421, with the mean value of 0.255, one third of the world average. In society coordination subsystem, the value is between 0.219 and 0.573, with the mean value of 0.371, 65.9 percent of the world average. The overall evaluating value of support system for the sustainable development capacity of Chinese cities is between 0.239 and 0.465, with the mean value of 0.317, 50.5 percent of the world average. Since 2000, the capacity of sustainable development in Chinese port cities has presented an increasing tendency. The increase of economical support capability and port production are both faster than that of the world average. The increase of intellectual provision capacity is almost the same as the world average. The increase of society coordination capacity is very slow, compared with the world average. However, the sustainable development capacity of Chinese port cities is weak in many fields, with a large disparity and disadvantage compared with the international cities. The cooperativity among subsystems and each indicator of sustainable development capacity is not very good. The utilization efficiency of resources is low and the environmental quality is poor. Therefore, such strategies as development of intellectual provision system, integration of regional economy, industrial expansion should be adopted to improve the development capability of domestic port cities and drive the sustainable development of China in the process of global economic integration.