湖南省生态经济系统耦合状态分析

Analysis of Coupling Status between Ecological System and Economic System in Hunan Province

从系统论视角剖析湖南省生态经济系统内部诸要素及其结构特征，构建评价指标体系，运用定量评价模型，分析区域系统的耦合状态。结果表明，1996年～2006年湖南省综合支撑能力呈对数型上升，而综合消耗水平呈指数型上升，两者演化速度具有非同步性，耦合度呈快速上升趋势，年均增长6．88度，2002年起进入过度开发期。并在实证分析基础上提出有效提高综合支撑能力与改善综合消耗水平质量的5项对策：①突出能源、原材料以及先进技术设备、关键零部件进口；②完善省内交通网，增加高速公路和高速铁路里程，提高货物周转量，以便通过道路建设带动其他基础设施的发展；③努力扩大服务贸易，提高第三产业产值的质量；④促进具有自主品牌和高附加值产品的出口，减少国内产业结构趋同商品的出口；⑤控制高耗能、高污染和资源性产品出口，以便改变一味以牺牲环境为代价追求经济增长的落后模式。

It is of great significance to clarify the strategies of regional development based on systematic theory, and an in-depth analysis of all elements of ecological and economic system and its internal structure, and constructing evaluation indexes system, using quantitative evaluation model. During the period of 1996 to 2006, the comprehensive provision capacity of ecological, economic and social systems in Hunan province presented a increasing trend of Logarithm-function, and the comprehensive consumption level presented a increasing trend of exponential function, both with non-synchronous evolution and rapid increase of coupling degree. Since 2002, Hunan province has entered the period of accelerated economic development. How to improve the comprehensive provision capacity of ecological, economic and social systems, and reduce consumption level effectively is a big challenge for the province＇ s sustainable development. In this paper, authors proposes five strategies to solve these problems, which are： 1 ）To increase imports of energy resources, raw materials as well as advanced technology and equipments; 2）To improve the traffic network, increase the length of highway and high-speed rail way, enhance the volume of freight in order to promote other infrastructures development through path construction; 3）To expand trade in services and improve the tertiary industry quality; 4）T9 foster domestic brands and promote high-value-added product exports; 5） to control energy-consuming and high pollution products exports in order to change the backward economic growth pattern.