中国苹果市场整合程度及价格波动规律研究

Study on China apple market integration and price fluctuation

我国苹果市场开放以后,苹果的生产和流通都出现了重大变化,研究国内苹果市场的整合程度对于把握我国苹果市场总体运行状况,进一步增加果农收入、提高社会福利具有重要的现实意义。通过协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和格兰杰因果关系检验分别对中国20个苹果主产或者主销地区的市场整合程度进行分析。结果表明,在多种因素的共同作用下,各地市场基本存在长期整合的趋势,短期整合程度明显低于长期,各地市场价格波动关系由于流通环节的原因会呈现不同的波动趋势。

Since the opening of apple market in China, the production and marketing have changed notably, studying on the degree of apple market integration and price fluctuation will be significant to the increase of the revenues of farmers and the improvement of social welfare. Through co-integration test, error correction model （ ECM ） and the Granger causality, the degree of inte- gration of 20 major producing and purchasing area was tested in China. The results showed that there was a long time integration trend of apple market, that the short time integration was far lower than long time integration, and that the marketing prices in different place fluctuated because of different marketing channels.