基于社会核算矩阵的厦门市产出与居民收入乘数分析

The Analysis of Sectoral Output and Household Income Multipliers Based on Social Accounting Matrix of Xiamen City

基于厦门市2002年投入产出表及其他相关数据,笔者构建了厦门市2002年的宏观社会核算矩阵,并对居民账户进行了细分。在此基础上,利用基于社会核算矩阵的SAM乘数模型,本文考察了各类产业在外生冲击下的产出效应和居民收入效应,并分析了外生冲击及转移支付对居民收入分配结构的影响。结果显示,产出乘数和居民收入乘数较高的行业分别是那些与其他行业具有较高关联度的行业和对社会就业带动作用较大的劳动密集型行业;厦门市当前经济的结构和转移分配都有利于改善当前居民收入差距过大的现状,但前者的效应不大。

Based on the input-output table of Xiamen city in 2002 and other related data, this paper constructs a social accounting matrix （SAM）. In this SAM, we classify the urban households＇ accounts by their income levels. Further, we study the output and household income impacts of each sector under exogenous shocks using SAM multiplier model, and also analyze the impacts of exogenous shock and transfer payment on the household income distribution structure. The results show that the sectors with higher output and household income multipliers are those which have higher association with others or labor-density sectors; the Xiamen city＇s current economic structure and transfer payment mode are in favor of improving the unequal household income situation at present. However, the former＇s effect is not large.