蚊媒传染病气象影响因素分析

Analysis on association with the mosquito-borne diseases and climate factors

目的探索气象因素与蚊类种群动态变化和蚊媒传染病流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)、疟疾和登革热发病的关系,为实施蚊媒传染病预防和控制策略提供科学依据。方法收集温州市2004-2006年疟疾、乙脑和登革热发病资料、2004-2006年蚊类种群密度季节消长监测资料及同期的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、相对湿度、日照时间、降雨天数、降雨量等气象资料,用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析方法进行分析。结果2004-2006年蚊类密度与同期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降雨量、相对湿度、日照时间有较高的正相关关系,与降雨天数无关。回归方程为Y=-23.671+0.190x3+0.299x4,x3、x4分别代表最低平均气温和相对湿度。结论气象因素影响着蚊类密度的变化,尤其是平均最低气温和相对湿度,从而成为影响蚊媒传染病发病的主要气象因素。

Objective To analysis the association with the mosquito-borne diseases and climate factors and search for control measures. Methods Monthly cases of mosquito-borne disease from 2004 to 2006 were collected from Wenzhou. Meanwhile, the data of monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, rainfall days and sunlight time from 2004 to 2006 were collected form Wenzhou weather bureau. Correlation analysis and multi-liner stepwise regression analysis were used. Results The results showed that mosquito density was pastive relative to monthly mean temperature, monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunlight time. Regression equation Y 23.671 ＋ 0. 190x3 ＋ 0.299x4 （x3- monthly minimum temperature, x4 - relative humidity） was obtained by multi-liner stepwise regression analysis. Conclusion Meteorological parameters affect mosquito density especially the monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity. Higher the monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity become two main factor affecting the incidence of the mosquito-borne diseases.