灰色系统模型在钱塘江流域供水量预测中的应用研究

Study on prediction of water supply volume based on grey system model in the Qiantang River basin

供水量预测是为满足流域发展需要提前进行的应策性预报,它是在流域水资源评价的基础上,以地区范围内预测基准年所有供水工程的实际可供水量为依据,提前审察和预测未来可供水的增长情况,以保证地区水资源供需平衡和新增水源工程的规划与建设。根据钱塘江流域四市及钱塘江水系1997-2003年的供水量,简要分析了流域供水量逐年变化情况,同时给出了流域供水量灰色动态预测模型的建立过程。利用模型分别预测2008年、2010年、2015年的供水量,并对模型进行了检验,预测误差小,应用效果比较符合实际。该模型能为流域总供水量指标的预测提供一种定量决策方法。

Prediction of water supply volume is a forecasting which is to meet the demand of basin development, according to supply water volume of all real water supply project in the predicted base year within regional range, and the growth situation of supplied water in future can be investigated and predicted on the basis of water resources evaluating. As a result, the equilibrium of supply and demand of regional water resources and the plarming and construction of the newly- increased water source project can be guaranteed. The change situation of water supply volume in the basin was analyzed year by year using the data of successive annual water supplies through 1997-2003. Meanwhile, grey model was constructed to predict water supply volume. The annual water supply volume in 2008, 2010 and 2015 were predicted using this model. The result shows that the grey model is credible to predict the water supply volume. As a result, this model provides a quantitative decision- making method for the prediction of the annual water supply in the fiver basin.