从覆盖到衔接：论中国和谐社会保障体系“三步走”战略

From Covering to Linking:The "Three-Step" Strategy on Harmonious System of Social Security of China

当前城乡二元社会保障制度的弊端在改革与实践中日益加深。在阐述城乡和谐社会保障体系建设战略意义,并借鉴国外社会保障制度发展经验与启示的基础上,综合运用社会保障制度基础理论、数理人口学、保险精算学、生命表技术、系统仿真等理论与技术方法,创新性地提出了我国社会保障体系从覆盖到衔接的"三步走"战略思想与理论,较全面地回答了我国社会保障体系如何从目前城乡二元的体系走向未来和谐社会保障体系的命题:即"第一步走",从现在到2020年,实现覆盖城乡的社会保障体系,其内容包括"广覆盖、分层次、有差别、可持续",而其核心体现在新型农村社会保障制度的建立上;"第二步走",从2021年到2035年的十五年间,主要任务与目标是基本建立以东部、中部、西部为划分的"大区域城乡衔接的社会保障体系",其核心内容为"统筹兼顾、动态衔接";"第三步走",争取在2049年建国百年庆典前,实现和谐社会保障体系的稳步建立,从大区域衔接到全国范围内的衔接。

Nowadays, the shortage of the binary systems of society security is becoming more obvious in its innovation and practice. This paper is based on the expatiation of the strategic sense of the construction of urban-rural Harmonious social security system, and the referencing the development experience and revelation of foreign social security systems. With synthetically utilizing theories and technology means, such as social security basic theory, demography, actuarial science, life-table method and system simulation, the 'Three-Step' covering strategy theory from urban to rural area of social security system is presented in this paper. The research explains how to alter the actual binary system to the future Harmonious system of social security. 'The First Step' is that the social security system covering urban and rural area will be realized in 2020. It adheres to the principle of 'Wide-Covering, Levels-Dividing, Different and Continual' and its backbone is to establish new rural social security system. 'The Second Step' will be taken during from 2021 to 2035. The main task of this step will aim at founding a social security linking urban and county in grand regions divided into three parts: East, Middle and West. It takes the concept of 'making overall plans while taking all factors into consideration, and dynamically linking' and the parameters of pension substitute rates and yield ratios. 'The Third Step' is to try to realize the harmony social security system stably before the century celebration of PRC in 2049. The security system will link the region in the range of the whole state in stead of the three grand regions.