厦门城市水环境承载力综合指标体系评价

The Study of Bearing Capacity of Water Environment in Xiamen

以厦门市为研究区域,结合厦门的区域环境与社会经济现状及发展规划,通过建立综合指标体系,应用系统动力学模型方法对厦门城市现状水平年(2005年)、规划水平年(2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,2050年)的水环境承载力作出初步分析.通过对6个与水资源和水环境密切相关的综合性指标的模拟计算并归一化处理,结果表明,厦门市水环境承载力是一个波动的趋势,主要是由于供需比的变化,以及工业废水达标率、城市污水处理率和人均供水量的变化的影响.

In this paper, we study the bearing capacity of water environment in Xiamen city by sysdynamic method. The obtained values of the bearing capacity of water environment in 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2050, respectively, were 0. 098, 0. 066, 0. 065, 0. 097, 0. 089, 0. 080 and 0. 100. This tendency is mainly attributed to the changes of the index values, especially the ratio of water supply to demand, the status of water pollution control and average water supply amount.