世界与中国发电量和装机容量的预测模型

Predicting Models of Power Generation and Installed Capacity in the Whole World and in China

对国内外权威机构预测的发电量、煤电装机容量与核电装机容量的数据进行了分析，应用多项式拟合方法建立了预测模型以及准确性的检验方法．预测了2010～2034年间世界的发电量、燃煤发电装机容量和非经济合作与发展组织国家的核电装机容量以及中国的发电量、煤电和核电装机容量．误差分析和拟合精度检验结果表明，所建数学模型拟合现有数据的效果非常好．预测结果表明国内外电力发展前景看好．

Data predicted by authoritative organizations in this and oversea countries concerning total power generation, and total installed capacity of coal-fired and nuclear power plants, are being analyzed. Prediction models and calibration methods for assessing the accuracy have been established by means of the polynomial fitting method. Data from 2010 to 2034 are predicted concerning world＇s total power generation and total installed capacity of coal-fired generating units, as well as nuclear power installed capacity in non- OECD countries. China＇ s power generation and installed capacity of coal-fired and nuclear power generating units are also predicted. Error analysis and accuracy fitting tests prove that the established mathematical models can well fit available data. Results indicate that the development of electric power in this and oversea counties has fine prospects.