征收硫税对中国二氧化硫排放和能源消费的影响

Effects of Sulfur Tax on Chinese Sulfur Dioxide Emission and Energy Consumption

本文通过建立一个可计算一般均衡模型,定量研究了征收硫税对中国二氧化硫排放和能源消费的影响。研究发现:硫税税率和减排率之间存在着明显的非线性特征,这种非线性特征在单一种类的能源消费和能源消费总量的变化上也有明显的体现;而且,征收硫税既能达到二氧化硫减排的目的,又对实际GDP没有产生过大的负面影响。研究还发现,征收硫税导致二氧化硫排放结构、能源消费数量和能源消费结构发生了变化,促进了含硫量低的能源对含硫量高的能源的替代。最后基于上述发现提出了若干政策建议。

In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） Model is established to evaluate the impact of sulfur tax on China＇s sulfur dioxide emission and energy consumption. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the rate of sulfur dioxide emission reduction and sulfur tax rate is nonlinear, but increases like quasi-exponent function. Both one kind of energy consumption and total energy consumption also take on this characteristic obviously. Moreover, the implementation of sulfur tax can help us attain the purpose of sulfur dioxide emission reduction and does not produce the greatly negative influence on the real GDP. Besides, our analysis shows that the implementation of sulfur tax promotes agents to substitute low-sulfur contained energy for high-sulfur contained energy, and causes the sulfur dioxide emission structure, energies consumption and their structure to vary simultaneously. Finally, we put forward some policy suggestions according to the above-mentioned results.