江苏省环境负荷预测分析

The Prediction and Control Approach to Environmental Load in Jiangsu Province

江苏省在经济可持续发展中面临能源自给率不足、环境容量有限、生态调节能力较弱及节能环保压力.利用环境负荷控制方程,以能源消耗量作为表征参数,对江苏省2000─2005年的环境负荷现状进行计算,并对其进行分析.对2010,2015和2020年的环境负荷进行预测,结果表明:江苏省经济在GDP年递增率达10%的高速发展条件下,若万元GDP能源消耗年降低率仍维持在2000─2004年的3.23%的水平而不加以控制,则2010年总能源消耗量将达到2.30×108t,并以8.38%的年增长率递增.为使江苏省能源消耗的水平基本维持在2005年的水平,必须使万元GDP能源消耗年降低率接近、等于甚至大于9.09%.从能源结构调整、技术进步等方面给出强化节能降耗的相关建议,以控制江苏省环境负荷,从而减轻能源和环境对经济发展的压力.

The sustainable development of Jiangsu Province is restricted by the lack of self-supplying energy, environment capacity and the capability of regulating ecosystem. Based on the environment load control equation, the energy consumption was taken as an indicated parameter to calculate and analyze the environmental load of Jiangsu Province during the 2000-2005 period. The anticipative result of the environmental load in 2010, 2015 and 2020 show that the energy consumption of Jiangsu Province in 2010 will reach 230 million t and keep increasing at the rate 8.38 % per year, if the GDP of Jiangsu Province increases at the rate 10 % and the decreasing rate of energy consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP maintains at 3.23 % levels of 2000-2004 years. In order to make the level of energy consumption keep at the level of 2005, the decreasing rate of energy consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP sl^ould approach or equal to even more than 9.09%. At last, some interrelated suggestions are given to save and reduce energy consumption from the energy structure adjusting and the technique progress. These suggestions can help control the environmental load of Jiangsu Province and thereby reduce the pressure of energy shortage and environment pollution on the economic development.