中国银行业集中度与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文利用1989～2003年的银行数据和经济增长数据,分析了中国银行结构与经济增长之间的关系。其中,选用四大国有银行的市场份额CR4即贷款、存款和资产反映的市场集中度指标衡量银行结构,选用GDP的变动率衡量经济增长。通过单位根检验和协整检验发现,只有CR4资产即用资产反映的银行结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系,对这两个变量继续作相关分析和格兰杰因果检验,发现银行集中度是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但做相反的检验,结论并不能成立。根据中国自身的特点并结合国外的银行结构变迁经验,本文探讨了现阶段适合中国经济增长的银行结构。

The article analyzes the data of China from 1989 to 2003, and makes an ADF test, co integration test and correlation analysis and Granger causality test. This paper points out that there is a very close relation between banking structure and economic growth. It concludes from the demonstration analysis that banking concentration rate is the Granger cause to economic growth in China, but economic growth is not the Granger cause to banking coneentration rate. At last, it tries to find out a favorable banking structure based on the empirical analysis and demonstration analysis. Whether banking sector should concentrate or not, and in what extent bank should be concentrated, depends on the demand of market.