使用反辐射武器对突防的影响分析

The influence of using airborne anti-radiation missiles on defense penetration

针对当前反辐射导弹对地面防空武器系统的威胁问题，分析了反辐射导弹超前发射时对防空阵地的毁伤概率及对减少载机损失的影响。通过概率论的分析方法，结合空防对抗的实际情况，建立了计算模型。该模型从单个目标对地面防空导弹的攻击入手，将多个目标攻击的情况分解为各独立事件的叠加，得出多目标空袭的计算模型，然后利用计算机进行仿真。根据仿真结果，得出在防空拦截中必须对载机和导弹同时拦截，并应尽早拦截的结论。提出在一次突防行动中，攻击方只要有3～4架携有反辐射导弹的战斗机就可以满足要求，再增加数量对提高突防概率的帮助并不明显。

The Anti-Radiation Missile（ARM） is a threat to the ground based air defense weapon system. We analyzed the damage probability of air defense position when the ARM is launched in advance, and its influence on decreasing the damage ratio of the aircraft itself. Considering the actual situation of the countermeasure between the aircrafts and the ground-based air defense system, we built up mathematical models by using probability method. In the models, the issue of ground attacking from multiple aircrafts was divided into several independent issues of single aircraft against ground-based air-defense missile. Then the model for multi - aircraft aerial attacking was obtained and simulated on computer. Based on the simulation result, it is suggested that for the air-defense system, the aircraft and the ARM should be intercepted at the same time as early as possible. It is also put forward that in one defense penetration task, 3 to 4 aircrafts carrying ARMs are enough for attacking.