基于时效性和不确定性的决策模式研究

Gradewise and stepwise decision-making modes based on time-effect and undeterminacy

针对灾害现场应急指挥决策风险性大、时效性强和机断性高的特点,研究并提出了分级与分步决策模式,以符合应急决策快速、高效、随机决断的要求。分析了分级决策的职责和任务,论述了决策目标与决策方案的关系、确定决策目标时应遵循的原则、决策方案制定的基本要求、决策效果评判的主要依据。

Aiming at the characteristics of big risk, high timeeffect and rapid occasion-determine in emergency command decision-making on disaster scene, Gradewise and Stepwise Decision-Making Modes were studied and put forward for a demand of short time, high efficiency and flexible determine. The traditional mode of centralized command decision-making and the routine manner of decision-making procedure were improved on the aspect of decision-making function and the making manner of operational scheme. The duty and task of gradewise decision-making was analyzed. The relationship between the object and the scheme of decision-making, the principle of object-determination, the basic requirement of scheme-making and the judgement on decision-making effect were discussed.