国际原油价格上涨对中国、美国和日本宏观经济的影响

Rising international crude oil prices and their macroeconomic impact on China, the U.S. and Japan

2002年至2007年,国际原油价格上涨的特点包括:1)油价持续上涨的周期长,上涨幅度大;2)油价上涨与美元走弱密不可分;3)原油期货市场的投机因素对现货市场的影响逐渐加大。2003-2006年,原油价格波动对世界经济的影响有明显弱化的迹象,但是,2007年世界主要经济体在宏观经济指标方面出现波动,高油价对世界经济的影响似乎初现苗头。本文采用一种新的非对称协整检验方法,研究分析2002年以来原油价格波动对美国、日本和中国宏观经济的影响。结果显示,由持续到2002年的数据得出的结论,与持续到2007年的数据得出的结论有所不同。原油价格冲击对于供给侧和需求侧的影响,近年来发生了变化。原油价格冲击对于经济体的影响取决于经济体的产业结构和能源消费结构。原油价格波动与总体价格水平之间存在长期稳定协整关系,原油价格波动影响总体价格水平的传导机制相对而言更为复杂。

Between 2002 and 2007, the global rise in crude oil prices was characterized by a number of features: 1) A long cycle of continuously rising oil prices, with sharp jumps in price; 2) The rise in oil prices was closely connected with the depreciation of the US dollar; 3) The spot market was feeling a steadily increasing impact from speculation on the crude oil futures market. Between 2003 and 2006, oil price fluctuations appeared to be having only a weak impact on the world economy. By 2007, however, macroeconomic indicators were beginning to fluctuate among the world's major economies, and the true impact of high oil prices began to emerge. This study analyzes the macroeconomic impact of fluctuating crude oil prices on the United States, Japan and China since 2002, applying a new asymmetric cointegration testing methodology. The data up to 2002, it is discovered, lead to a different conclusion than the data up to 2007. In recent years, the impact of crude oil prices on the supply side and on the demand side has undergone a transformation. The macroeconomic impact of crude oil prices is dependent on the structure of an economy's industry and fuel consumption. Fluctuations in crude oil prices bear a long-term, stable cointegration relationship with prices overall, but the32mechanisms by which this impact is transmitted are far more complex than was originally believed.