基于数理统计理论的超标概率在环境质量评价中的应用

Probability Exceed to Standard Based on Statistics and Probability Theory Apply in Environmental Quality Evaluation

目前经常使用的评价环境质量超标情况的主要指标为超标率,但它将环境监测抽样样本和样本总体相混淆,从而导致其不能客观评价环境质量的超标情况。基于概率统计论提出了一种新的指标——超标概率来评价环境质量的超标情况。利用抽样样本的特性,求出超标概率。由于环境监测样本抽样方式的不同,超标概率的计算公式也略有不同。为了说明该方法如何运用,以京杭大运河宿迁段水质为例,分析了每种污染物和整个京杭大运河宿迁段的超标情况。

Now,the method which often used in appraising pollutants value exceeding standard is the index exceeding standard,but it obscures environmental sample and population,so it can not objectively appraise pollutants value exceeding standard.After analysis the reason causing this phenomenon,based on probability statistical view,this paper make a kind of new index_probability exceeding standard. We can calculate probability exceeding standard with the characteristic of sample.Because of the difference of sampling way of environmental quality,some difference will be in calculation formula of probability exceed to standard.We use the water quality in Suqian section of the Grand Canal to introduce the application of this method.