他们为何不上大学?——显在需求与潜在需求的决定要因

Why Don't High School Students Go to University?:Determinants of the Demand for Higher Education

1976年以后,高中毕业生的大学升学率持续徘徊在50%前后。但是,先行研究并未说明学生们为什么不上大学,尽管他们能够很容易地进入大学。本文将探讨50%升学率背后所潜伏着的经济因素的影响程度。分析显示,选择直接就业的人主要是因为大学的高额学费,而选择升入专门学校的人主要是因为大学的高额学费和入学考试的低录取率。这一结果表明,如果考虑潜在需求的话,高等教育的实际需求要高于升学率所显示的程度。

Since 1976, the application rate of high school students for university has remained level at around fifty percent. HOwever, previous research has not clarified the reason why students do not go on to university despite the ease if access. This paper examines the extent to which economic factors underlie the stabilization of the application rate at 50%. The analysis shows that there are individuals who find employment instead of going to university for the reason of the high prices, and who go to technical schools for the reason of the high prices and low acceptance rate for entrance examinations. This result indicates that, considering this latent demand, the demand for higher education is larger than that indicated by the application rate.