信贷、投资、价格变动与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Credit,Investment and Economic Growth

本文采用Granger因果检验和回归模型分析等计量方法，对我国1992～2003年银行信贷、固定资产投资、价格变动与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：银行贷款和经济增长存在明显的正相关关系。通过验证分析，我们还发现在我国是由固定资产投资决定银行贷款，而不是银行贷款决定固定资产投资；同时当期的产品价格对固定资产投资没有显著性影响，企业在进行投资决策时主要是依据上期产品的价格或者说企业面对产品市场价格变化要到下一期才能作出实质性的反应。这导致在我国银行信贷对经济产生作用的机理为：当期银行信贷首先影响的是当期物价，当期物价的变动会通过影响下一期的固定资产投资规模，从而影响下一期的经济增长。

Based on the annual data of 1992-2003, this paper uses Granger causality test to analyze the relationship among credit, investment and economic growth. The result indicates that there is a positive correlation between credit and economic growth. In addition, it is found that credit is determined by investment in fixed assets in China, the level of price has no effect on current investment and enterprises＇ decision-making on investment is based on prior period＇s price. We, therefore, conclude that the mechanism of credit influencing economic growth in China is as follows. credit influences current prices; fluctuating current prices influence the next period; change of investment influences economic growth.