机动目标在射击门下的概率模型估计

Estimate of Probability Models on Maneuver Object Crossing Shot Door

研究机动目标在射击门下的同一性分布可为火控理论中命中概率研究与应用提供一普适性的理论依据。分析了具有随机因素的机动目标在穿越射击门时的随机计数特征,给出了齐次泊松分布的推断,对具有二维独立自相关正态随机目标在矩形域和椭圆域下待机时间和滞留时间的概率密度估计及其误差进行了仿真研究,得到其密度估计模型及其误差为伽玛分布的补偿修正估计模型。

Analyses of identical distribution about maneuver object crossing shot door could offer a universal basis for the study and applications of hit probability in shot door by gun fire control theory, Stochastic counting properties of maneuver object with random elements were studied under shot door, The inferences of homogeneous Poisson process were proposed. Under rectangular and elliptic areas, density estimate of awaiting-time and residence time of maneuver object distributed with two-dimension independent and self-relative normal distribution and their errors were simulated, the density estimate models and the density model with compensated and regulated error distributed with gamma distribution were achieved.