1951～2004年登陆我国热带气旋频数和强度的变化

Variations in frequency and intensity of landfall tropical cyclones over China during 1951～2004

通过分析1951～2004年登陆我国热带气旋频数和强度的变化,结果表明,登陆热带气旋频数呈减少趋势,50～60年代登陆热带气旋频数较多,1991～2004年是热带气旋登陆我国的最少时期。1951～2004年间登陆强度为强台风和超强台风的热带气旋频数呈显著减少趋势。最大登陆强度在50～70年代,近几年是偏弱气候阶段。平均登陆强度没有明显变化。登陆热带气旋的破坏潜力存在明显的年代际变化,50～70年代初明显偏强。登陆热带气旋平均强度的减弱和具有较强强度登陆热带气旋频次的减少引起破坏潜力的减弱。

The frequencies and intensities of landfall tropical cyclones over China for the period of 1951 - 2004 are analyzed. Decreasing trend is found in annual number of landfall tropical cyclones during 1951-2004. There were more landfalls in 1950s and 1960s while the annual mean frequency was the least from 1991 to 2004. Significant downward trends are also found in the annual number of tropical cyclones achieving STY and SuperTY when making landfalls. The maximum landfall intensities were stronger from 1950s to 1970s and decreased in recent years. The mean landfall intensity didn＇t show any trend during 1951 - 2004. The TDP of landfall tropical cyclones showed significant interdecadal variations and were strong from 1951 to early 1970s. Decreasing in the mean intensity of tropical cyclones during lifetime and downward trends in the frequencies of landfalls achieving very strong intensities caused the decreasing in TDP.