中国奶粉市场未来走势以及影响因素分析

Trends and influencing factors of milk powder market in China in the coming years

中国奶粉生产近年来的变化主要体现在两方面，一是奶粉生产继续保持较快的增长，二是奶粉结构继续有所变化，小包奶粉中的配方奶粉的份额预计还会扩大，同时工业奶粉比重将有所提高。

The article specifically analyzes the tendency of milk pow- der market in China in the aspects of production,consumption, trade and strategy that are summarized as following: Production of milk powder First of all,milk powder market is growing rapidly.The main factor is the huge demand potential.In the coming years, the growth rate of milk powder in China is expected to hover around 20%. Secondly,the structure of milk powder is changing.In the domestic market,infant formula milk powder,formula milk powder for pregnant women and formula milk powder for the middle-aged and the elderly will have further expansion of their market shares in the small packaging milk powder market. Also,in the coming two years,supply of skimmed milk powder in the international market falls short of demands, leading to continuous strength in the price,which also provide sound market opportunities for the rapid growth of industrial powder in China. Consumption of milk powder Firstly,since the beginning of 2007,due to continuous price rise of raw milk and milk powder in the international market,the cost to import milk powder has gone up greatly. Many enterprises turn to domestic suppliers,which directly pulled up the price level of domestic industrial powder.In the near future,the overall market price will continue to go up or run at a high level range. Secondly,packet milk powder consumption and distinct growth of industrial milk powder consumption is slowly growing. Thirdly,key consumption market of county-level areas has potentials.With the improvement of the rural milk powder market and the enhancement of rural income,formula milk powder has enormous demand potential. Trade of milk powder Due to firm imported price,milk powde import would decrease further.Since international market price will go up further,Chinese milk powder import volume in 2007 is ex- pected to drop to close to 30%.Beside,the shortage of import supply also cut down on the import volume. Secondly,Oceania is sill key import origins with reducing market share in China.Chinese milk powder import will still be mainly from the Oceanic countries,but imports from Europe, Latin America and India are expected to increase. Additionally,export will become an important driving force for the growth of Chinese milk powder industry. Finally,continuous appreciation of Chinese currency against US dollars is influencing the improvement of Chinese milk powder trade balance. Strategy of milk powder market competition For one thing,strategic alliance of milk powder market competition will continue to be popular.To enhance the com- petitiveness of domestic milk powder,some Chinese brands choose to cooperate with milk powder multinational compa- nies in an effort to break through the bottleneck in sales. Secondly,to gain profit margin would probably become important means as well.Formula milk powder,particular quality formula milk powder,is an important part of the milk powder market diversification. In addition,although dairy consumption in the third-level and fourth-level markets remains low,it is still predicted that the main driving force for Chinese milk powder market comes from the vast rural market. Eventually,international market is also becoming an im- portant channel for brand milk powder enterprises in China. Actually,demands for milk powder import from many coun- tries are strong.If China wishes to export milk powder successfully,in-depth analysis of the potential market demands in these countries,their policy and legal environment,etc.is called for. Source:Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd.