华南夏季降水与全球海温的关系

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOUTH CHINA SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND GLOBAL SST

用１９５４～１９８９年华南夏季（６～７月）降水资料和全球月平均海温资料作了简单的相关分析。分析结果表明，华南夏季降水与前期冬季１月的黑潮海温存在显著的负相关，冬季１月黑潮异常增暖有利于华南夏季干旱的产生，而异常偏冷则有利于洪涝的产生。计算结果进一步表明，华南夏季降水与菲律宾、台湾一带的海温以及北大西洋中纬度海温在整个前期春季、同期夏季存在显著的负相关，意味着以上两海区海温在春夏异常增暖有利于华南夏季干旱，而异常的偏冷则有利于华南夏季偏涝，这对于预测华南夏季洪涝干旱有一定的指示意义。

In terms of 1954～1989 summer (June～July) rainfall over South China and monthly mean global SST, study is undertaken of the relationship between the South China summer rainfall (SRSC) and SST. It turns out that SRSC is negatively correlated to the previous January SST over the western North Pacific at a significant level, suggesting that anomaly increase (decrease) of the SST aforementioned is beneficial to summer flood/drought over South China. Results further indicate that noticeable negative correlation between SCSR and SST is maintained over the Philippines and its surroundings, mid latitude North Atlantic during the previous spring and summer with its great significance to predicting summer flood/drought in South China.