2008北京奥运食品冷链物流需求预测分析

Demand Forecast for Olympic Food Cold Chain Logistics

本文认为,对奥运食品冷链物流需求进行预测分析,可在一定程度上减少冷链物流在实际运作中的不确定性,为奥运食品冷链物流的系统规划和实际运作提供参考。冷链物流需求预测主要预测居住在奥运村的各类人员和国内外观众(需求主体)对冷冻冷藏食品(需求客体)的需求所引发的冷链物流需求量。文章首先预测需求主体数量,然后结合人均食品消耗量预测冷冻冷藏食品的总需求量,最后根据单位设施设备的能力,预测食品冷链物流需求量。预测结果表明,奥运会期间食品冷链物流的需求量将成倍增加,而目前多数生产企业自有冷藏车数量较少,不足以应对奥运会带来的对冷藏车需求的增加。因此,北京市及相关奥运餐饮服务提供商应考虑是购买冷藏车还是与第三方物流公司合作进行配送。同时鉴于奥运需求只是短时间内的需求,政府和企业既要考虑到奥运会期间的需求,更要考虑到奥运会之后的经济效益。

Demand forecast can guarantee the effective operation of the Olympic Games. The authors classify the demand of Olympic food cold chain logistics, identify the subject of demand forecast and sort out thoughts to forecast. In the end, the author forecast the amount of persons taking part in the Olympic Games and frozen and chilled food needed and the demand of food cold chain logistics. And the authors put forward that the catering service provider should consider whether they should purchase refrigerated van or Cooperate with 3PL. At the same time, they should understand that demand of Olimpic Games is only a short-run demand. So, govermment and the enterprises should not only consider demand during Olimpic Games, but also consider the economic performance after that.