发展中国家汇率制度安排的名与实——对法定汇率制度与事实汇率制度之差异的经验分析

Words and Deeds of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries:An Empirical Analysis of the Differences between de jure and de facto Exchange Rate Regimes

文章分析了发展中国家汇率制度安排名与实不符现象的分布与演变,并对其成因提出了一些假说。文章使用面板数据多元混合Logit模型的计量分析发现,较高的通货膨胀导致恐惧浮动现象,而较高外汇储备或严格的资本管制则导致恐惧固定现象,这在很大程度上支持了我们提出的关于发展中国家汇率制度安排名与实不符现象成因的假说。

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the differences between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes in developing countries. We first analyze the classification of exchange rate regimes as well as the distribution and evolution of the differences between de jure and de facto exchange arrangements, then raise several hypotheses on the causes of these regime differences. The econometric analysis is conducted on a sample consist of more than 100 developing countries over more than 20 years using a paneldata multinomial mixed logit model. We find that high inflation is associated with fear of floating, while high foreign exchange reserves and intense capital controls are associated with fear of pegging. The estimation results are generally in support of our hypotheses, and the empirical model provides a reasonably good explanation of the regime differences.