人力资源市场和谐发展的宏观视角研究--基于山东劳动力市场的实证分析

The Research on Coordination Development of Human Capital Market from Macroeconomic Perspective: Empirical Analysis Based on Human Capital Market of Shangdong Province

合理解决劳动力就业问题已成为经济能否持续有效发展、创建和谐社会的关键因素之一。文章以山东为例,利用协整检验对长期模型中可能影响劳动力就业的GDP增长、外商直接投资、三大产业结构特征以及教育和技术研发投入金额等因素进行实证分析;利用向量误差修正模型和广义脉冲响应函数研究各影响因素对人力资本市场需求的短期冲击;同时利用Granger因果检验对各主要影响因素和就业情况的内在因果关系进行检测;最后对我国劳动力就业形势进行预测并提出相关政策建议。

How to handle reasonably the labor employment problem is one of key factors that the China economy can develop efficiently and persistently, and one of the key factors that the society can be coordinate development. According to the labour employment problem in Shandong Province, this paper does cointegration test to the factors which probably affect labor employment, such as the increase of GDP, FDI, the characteristics of three industrial structures, education and the devotion of R＆D. We take use of VECM and general impulse response function to analyze the short-term shock of various factors to the demand of human capital market, as well as use of Granger causal test to ananlyze the interior causal relationshiops between various facotors and employment. Finally,it also forecasts future situation of the labor market in the coastal provinces in China's Mainland, and presents several policy suggestions.