丽水市云南松毛虫发生的气象条件分析及趋势预测

Meteorological Condition Analysis and Trend Prediction of Dendrolimus houi Occurrence in Lishui City

[目的]预测云南松毛虫的发生及危害程度，控制灾害。[方法]分析1983年以来丽水山区云南松毛虫大暴发的周期规律，研究虫害的发生发展与气象因子的关系，建立了松毛虫发生面积预测回归方程。[结果]丽水山区云南松毛虫的暴发间隔时间逐年缩短，暴发持续时间为2年，与上年虫口基数大有关系。云南松毛虫的发生与年日照时数、12月最高温度存在显著正相关关系，与年雨日存在显著负相关关系，与1月日照时数存在极显著的正相关关系，与1、2月的最低气温无显著相关。用建立的回归方程对2001～2006年的受灾等级进行拟报，发现结果与实际比较一致。[结论]云南松毛虫的发生发展与年雨日、年日照及1月日照、12月最高气温有很大的关系，建立的回归方程的预报效果较佳。

[ Objective ] The purpose of this study was to predict the occurrence and harmful degree of Dendrolimus houi and control the disaster. [ Method] The periodic law of D. houi outbreak in Lishui motmtainous area since 1983 was analyzed to study the relationship between the occurrence and development of insect pest and the meteorological factors and set up the prediction regression equation of D. houi occurrence area. [Result] The interval times among D. houi outbreaks in Lishui metmtainous area shortened year by year and the outbreak duration was 2 years, which had great relationship with the initial population number of last year. ＇Ihe D. houi occurrence had significantly positive correlation with sunlight hours per year and the highest temperature in December, had significantly negative correlation with rainy days per year, had extremely significantly positive correlation with sunlight hours in January, and had no significant correlation with the lowest temperatures in January and February. The disaster degrades in 2002 - 2006 were quasi-reported with established regression equation, and it was found that the results accorded with fact comparatively. [Conclusion] The occurrence and development of D. houi had great relationships with rainy days per year, sunlight per year, stmlight in January and the highest temperature in December and the prediction effect of established regression equation was better.