河流集合预报方法(ESP)在水资源中长期预测中的应用研究

Application of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction(ESP) to Medium-and-long-term Water Resources Prediction

中长期径流预测是水文水资源研究领域中的一项重要内容,为水资源规划管理及可持续利用、防汛抗旱、水库调度与发电计划制作、工农业用水计划编制等提供科学依据,对国民经济发展具有十分重要的意义。但由于大气圈极其复杂,水文要素并非仅是气象强迫输入的函数。它还受流域基本特性,前期来水以及人类活动等诸多因素的影响,中长期径流预测在其计算中存在着多种不确定性。因此,中长期径流预测一直是水文预测研究中难度较大的课题之一。本文引入河流集合预报方法(ESP),以丹江口水库为应用实例,利用水文气象历史资料和新安江水文模型,预测分析水库2007年10月份每旬的平均入库流量及概率分布统计,并经与实测流量过程对比分析,满足水库运行调度需求,为水库发电计划制作提供了可靠依据。

In the field of hydrology and water resource study, the medium-and-long-term prediction of runoff is an important content, which provides the scientific basis for water resource planning and management, flood control and drought relief, reservoir operation and making generation planning as well as industrial and agricultural water use planning. It is significant for the development of national economy. Because the aerosphere is very complex, hydrological element is not just a function of meteorological forcing. It also depends on the basin characteristics, previous streamflow and human activities etc. There are many uncertainties in its calculation. So, the medium-and-long-term prediction of runoffis one of the most difficult subjects in hydrology study. This paper introduced the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction （ESP） method in Danjiangkou reservoir as an example, using the historical meteoro-hydrological data and Xinanjiang Model to simulate the mean inflow and calculate probability distributions in ten-day time interval in October, 2007. Comparing with the observed inflow, the result shows that the ESP method meet the requirement of reservoir operation and provide the reliable basis for making generation planning.