广州市近50年来气候变化分析

Analysis on the Climate Characteristic and Climatic Change in Guangzhou City in Last 50 Years

利用广州市1951～2004年的气温、降水、最高气温、最低气温和风速等资料，运用数理统计等方法，对各气象要素进行统计，分析了近50年气候变化特征．结果表明：近50年来广州市气候趋向变暖，特别是80年代以来，年平均气温升高明显．近50年来平均气温增长率为每10年上升0．13℃．近50年来年平均气温上升的主要季节在湿季，并且主要是与1～3月干季平均气温的变化有关；年平均降水量随着时间的推移呈现周期性的现象．除了秋季降水减少以外，夏、冬、春季降水都有增加，其中夏季降水量每10年增加3．82mm，在四季中增加速率最快，对年降水量影响较大；平均风速的年际变化较小，长期变化呈现下降趋势并具有阶段性，四季中冬季平均风速最大，对年际变化影响有着重要的意义。

According to the materials such as the temperature, the precipitation, the highest temperature,the minimum temperature and the wind speed during 1951-2001 in Guangzhou, and using the methods of mathematical statistics,meteorological key element in Guangzhou is counted and the climatic change characteristic in Guangzhou nearly last 50 years is analyzed. The results show that The climate of Guangzhou nearly 50 years tended to become warm,especially since the eighties,the annual average temperature rise obviously. The annual average temperature increased 0.13℃ every 10 years in GuangZhou City nearly past 50 years. The major season that induced the annual average temperature up was wet season and was mainly connected to the average temperature in dry season in GuangZhou City nearly 50 years;The most obviously increased temperature appear in winter. Secondly,in summer, the annual average precipitation presented the periodic phenomenon; except autumn, the precipitation in summer,winter and spring all increased slowly. Increase 3.82 mm every 10 years in summer and it had great influence on annual precipitation. The annual change of the average wind speed was little. It presented a downtrend and change in phases. The average wind speed of the winter was the largest in four seasons. It had important meaning to the annual change influence.