基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的磨心坡深部煤层厚度预测

Prediction of Deep Thickness of Coal Seam in Moxinpo Based on Grey GM(1,1)Model

利用灰色GM(1,1)模型,结合生产资料对磨心坡深部煤层厚度进行预测。结果表明磨心坡深部煤层厚度随深度增加基本保持平稳,储量稳定。结合钻探资料证实,灰色GM(1,1)模型在预测煤层厚度方面有一定的优势,但由于实际情况的复杂性、模型的单调性,要得到更精确的预测还需要做进一步的研究工作。

Combining with the production data, grey GM （ 1,1 ） model is used to predict deep thick- ness of coal seam in Moxinpo. The results show that thickness of coal seam keeps steady and reserves keep stable as depth increases. The drilling data indicate that grey GM （ 1,1 ） model has certain advantage in prediction of deep thickness of coal seam. To acquire a more accurate prediction, further research work should to be done because of complexity of actual circumstance and monotonicity of the model.