和田绿洲水文气象要素分形特征与R/S分析

Fractal Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Hydrometeor in Hotian Oasis of Xinjiang Autonomous Region

基于和田绿洲半个世纪(1954-2003年)以来实测水文气象资料,应用Kandell秩次相关检验法进行趋势性分析,结果表明:气温、蒸发的增加趋势显著,降水、相对湿度与河川径流量存在不显著的减少趋势。R/S分析结果表明,绿州内各水文气象要素的变化具有持续性,但不同季节的持续强度不同,降水和相对湿度的持续强度夏季大于冬季,其余表现为冬季大于夏季。分形结果显示,各水文气象要素变化的趋势性和复杂程度不同,其中玉龙喀什河径流量>喀拉喀什河径流量>相对湿度>降水量>平均气温>蒸发量,即绿洲径流变化的趋势线最不明显,也最复杂。研究结果对了解绿洲气候资源、指导农业生产及预防灾害有参考作用。

The Kandell＇ rank verification was used to analyze the tendency of hydrometeor in the Hotian oasis of Xinjiang Autonomous Region from 1954 to 2003. The results showed that the temperature, evaporation increased significantly, while the precipitation, relative humidity and the river runoff decreased not significantly. The results of Rescaled Range Analysis （R/S analysis） showed that changes of each hydrometeor had the persistence. Based on the Hurst index the intensity of the persistence was quantitatively compared. The fractal characteristics of the hydrometeor was described and the fractal dimension was confirmed.