日太阳总辐射推算模型

Calculation Model for Daily Global Solar Radiation

为了推算广大无辐射观测地区的日太阳总辐射,需要根据有辐射观测地区的资料建立日太阳总辐射的推算模型。本文在深入了解国内太阳辐射观测与国内外太阳总辐射推算方法的基础上,设计了利用日照百分率、降水量与大气可降水量、温度日较差等因子推算日太阳总辐射的模型,选取武汉、宜昌、郑州2005年全年无加盖的、真实可信的太阳总辐射资料为样本序列,根据最小二乘法分别求出有日照和无日照两种情况下的模型参数,并对2005年进行了回代检验和2006年1-8月时段的独立样本检验。结果表明:模型推算序列与实际值序列的相关性均达到极显著程度,对2005-2006年8月推算的平均绝对误差和相对误差分别为1.31M J.m-2.d-1和9.5%,精度高,可以用于无辐射观测地区的日太阳总辐射的推算。

In order to calculate the daily global solar radiation in the vast non-observation area, it is necessary to establish a calculation model for the daily global solar radiation according to data obtained in radiation areas. Based on the research in the domestic solar radiation observation and the calculation methods on the global solar radiation, a new calculation model was designed by using factors, such as the sunshine percentage, the precipitation and the atmosphere potential precipitation, daily range of temperature etc. , to calculate the daily global solar radiation. Taken Wuhan, Yichang and Zhengzhou as examples, the non-capping and creditable data of global solar radiation in 2005 was used to build a set of sample sequence. Furthermore, model parameters under the condition in sunshine or in non-sunshine were separately calculated according to least squares method. Finally, the calculation consequences were verified by the data of 2005 and period from January to August in 2006. The results showed that the mutuality between the model calculated sequence and the actual value sequence was highly significant. The mean absolute error in the verification was with 1.31MJ m^-2 d^-1 and the relative error was with 9.5% , which were smaller than results obtained by the domestic research. In conclusion, the model can be used to calculate the daily global solar radiation in the non-observation area.