济宁市秋冬积温变迁及其对冬小麦生长的影响

Changes of Accumulated Temperature during Autumn and Winter and Their Impacts on Winter Wheat Growth in Jining City of Shandong Province

利用济宁市1967-2006年的气象资料及小麦秋冬季生长发育资料,分越冬前和越冬期分析了秋冬积温变迁及其对冬小麦生长发育的影响。结果表明,1967年以来,每10 a平均冬前≥0℃积温及其≥700℃.d的几率、≥750℃.d的几率、≥800℃.d的几率均显著增加,越冬期≥0℃积温也显著增加,而负积温显著减少;冬小麦冬前旺长年的几率增加、旺长程度加重,越冬期间生长量加大。因此,早播麦田适宜播期应推迟到10月5日-9日,不宜早于10月5日,遇暖秋(10月上旬旬均温≥18℃)年开播时间可推迟至10月10日,偏春性半冬性品种在上述各适宜播期的基础上应再推迟5d,以便有效预防冬前旺长和越冬期冻害。

Based on the meteorological data of the winter of 1967 -2006 in Jining City of Shandong Province, changes of the accumulated temperature during autumn and winter and their impacts on winter wheat growth were analyzed, combined with the growth and development data of winter wheat. The results indicated that since 1967, that mean accumulated temperature above 0℃ , the probability of ≥700℃ and ≥800℃ accumulated temperature each ten years before wintering increased significantly. The accumulated temperature above 0℃ during the overwintering stage increased significantly, while the negative accumulated temperature during overwintering stage decreased significantly. The probability of the flourishing growth of winter wheat before wintering increased, while the degree of the flourishing growth and growth rate during overwintering stage increased as well. The sowing date for early winter wheat should be postponed to October 5^th to 9^th , not earlier than October 5^th. The sowing date could be postponed to October 10^th as in autumn it was warm, e.g. the mean temperature in the first ten days of October was with ≥18℃. For the cultivars of the spring form or half winter form the sowing date should be further postponed to October 10^th to 15^th to prevent the flourishing growth before wintering and freeze damage during the wintering stage.