重庆近46年气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Characteristics of Climate Change over Last 46 Years in Chongqing

利用重庆34个地面气象观测站1960-2005年降水量、降水日数、气温等观测资料的年平均值，运用线性倾向估计、小波分析和M-K突变检验等方法对重庆近46 a来气候变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明：分析期内重庆年降水量的线性变化趋势不明显，但以2-3 a的周期波动变化为主，1984年是近46 a降水量变化的显著突变点，20世纪80年代为多雨期，90年代则为相对少雨期。降水日数以2-4 a的年际变化周期为主，呈现显著的线性减少趋势，1984年以后降水日数偏少的年份比之前明显偏多。年平均气温的线性变化趋势不明显，但具有明显的阶段性，20世纪80年代为偏冷期，进入21世纪后则显著上升，其平均值高出多年平均值0.4℃。降水和气温在各年代的变化特征存在较好的对应关系，如20世纪80年代为多雨、偏冷期，21世纪初为少雨、偏暖期。

Based on the meteorological data of mean annual precipitation, rain day and air temperature of 34 meteorological stations in 1960 - 2005, the characteristics of climate change in Chongqing in the recent 46 years was studied, by using linear-trend estimate, Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test. The results indicated that the precipitation decreased faintly and broke out in 1984. The main period oscillation of precipitation was 2 - 3 years. There was a pluvial period in 1980s and a rare rain period in 1990s. The period oscillation of the rain day was 2 - 4 years. The rain day showed a linear decreased trend significantly. The year of the rare rain day was more after 1984 than that before. The mean annual temperature increased faintly in the recent 46 years. There was a cooler period in 1980s and a warmer period at the beginning of the 21^st century. The mean temperature increased by 0.4℃ compared to the mean annual temperature. The inter-decade change between the precipitation and air temperature existed a corresponding relationship, for example, it was a pluvial and cooler period in 1980s, while it was a rare rain and warmer period at the beginning of the 21^st century.