气候波动对重庆水稻产量的影响及对策

Impacts of Climate Changes on Rice Yield and Response Strategies in Chongqing

选用代表重庆四个区域的江津、丰都、奉节、酉阳1960-2001年的气象及水稻产量资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检测方法对水稻产量资料序列进行分段,利用Logistic曲线进行分段拟合求取水稻的趋势产量,进而得到气象产量,利用积分回归等方法分析气候因子对水稻产量的影响。结果表明:重庆四个地区的水稻单产均在20世纪80年代前期发生突变性增长;采用Logistic分段拟合趋势产量的效果明显优于线性拟合,体现了水稻的实际变化趋势;水稻的气象产量具有较明显的年际变化,表现出一定的阶段性,20世纪60年代初期、整个70年代、90年代中后期气象产量较低,而60年代中后期、80年代中期-90年代中前期水稻的气象产量相对较高;造成重庆水稻减产的主要因素为春季低温阴雨和伏旱等灾害,因此,应采取春季保温和增蓄伏前水等措施促进水稻增产丰收。

Based on the meteorological and rice yield data of 1960 -2001 in four representative counties Jiangjin, Fengdu, Fengjie and Youyang in Chongqing City, the rice yield series were detached as subsections by using Mann-Kendall method. The rice tendency yields were calculated based on subsection fitting by the Logistic equation to obtain the meteorological yields. The impacts of climate on rice yields and corresponding response strategies were analyzed by using integral-regression method. The results showed that the rice yield per unit increased abruptly in all of four counties of Chongqing in early 1980s. The effects of subsection Logistic fitting were superior to that of beeline fitting. The meteorological yield of rice had an annual change. It was relative low in the early 1960s, 1970s and middle and late 1990s, while it was relative high in the middle 1960s, middle 1980s and early-middle 1990s. The reduction of the rice yield was mainly caused by the low temperature in spring with overcast and rainy and drought in summer. In order to increase rice yield, some measures, including keep thermo in spring and reinforce water before the summer should be adopted.