基于风险和稳健决策的产品设计链伙伴选择

Risk and robust decision for selecting partners in product design chain

在产品研发过程中存在不确定性因素,导致产品研发存在一定的风险.在时间和成本约束下,提出了基于风险和稳健决策的设计链伙伴选择模型.对产品研发过程中存在的风险进行量化和集总,在不同的决策态度下实现了产品研发对时间、成本和风险的控制要求.最后通过算例对模型进行了仿真.

Many uncertainty factors exist in product development process, which lead to the risk existing in product development. A risk and robust decision model is proposed under the constraints of target development time and cost at the same time. Fuzzy sets theory is used to represent imprecise and uncertain information, and the potential risks are measured and aggregated. Even under worst condition, the partners that are chosen by using the method can satisfy the demand of development time and cost. Finally, a simulation with an example is given.