黑龙江省对外贸易对经济增长作用的实证分析

An empirical analysis of the role of foreign trade in economic growth in Heilongjiang province

根据1990～2006年黑龙江省历年对外贸易额和全省生产总值数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法进行实证分析.结果表明:黑龙江省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,对外贸易额每增加1%,将促进经济增长0.66%;对外贸易的短期波动将引起经济增长同方向变化;如果本期的全省生产总值偏离长期均衡值,到下一时期,这一偏离度将有1%得到纠正或清除;黑龙江省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着Granger因果关系,对外贸易的发展促进经济增长.

The paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth by using unit root rest,co-integration test,Granger causality test according to the corresponding data from 1990 to 2006 in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that there is the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth:an increase of 1% of foreign trade,an increase of 0.66% of GDP.The short-term fluctuation of foreign trade would cause the corresponding change of GDP.If GDP deviates from the long-balanced value,it would be adjusted by 1% in next year.It also exits Granger causality between foreign trade and economic growth.The foreign trade plays an important role on economic growth.