中印自由贸易区的建立对中国及世界经济影响研究

Analysis on the Effect of China-India FTA on China and the World Economy

本文运用GTAP模型和等递归动态法,针对中国与印度自由贸易区的构建,以及在此基础上可能形成的其他不同区域合作方案,对中国的贸易规模、贸易结构、GDP、福利水平和生产格局等将产生的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟分析。研究表明:在不同区域合作方案下,中国福利损益有差异;中国的贸易规模及除服务业之外的各产业的进出口增长都比较显著;服务业是中国参与东亚区域经济合作的薄弱产业;"10+6"方案对中国最不利,而中国-印度自由贸易区和中国-印度-澳大利亚自由贸易区方案对中国较为有利。中国的优势方案是争取在印度、澳大利亚之间建立自由贸易区,而避免东盟、日本等的加入。

Applying GTAP model and combining Walmsley's dynamic recursion,the paper does a computable general equilibrium analysis on the effect of China-India FTA and other regional cooperation scenarios based on it in East Asia on China's trade scale,trade structure,social welfare,GDP,and output levels.The results indicate that China's profit or loss is difference in different scenarios.Regional economic cooperation greatly improves China's national welfare and influences its GDP growth correspondingly.Services are China's inferior industries and will suffer certain negative impact.The '10+6' scenario is the worst one for China,while the scenarios of China-India FTA and China-India-Australia FTA are more beneficial to China.China should try to establish a FTA with India or with both India and Australia,and at the same time avoid the entry of Japan and ASEAN.