黄金价格的长期决定因素稳定性分析被引量：92

An Analysis The Stability of Long-run Determinants of the Gold Price

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摘要本文通过实证分析1972～1988年、1989～2006年以及1972～2006年三个时间段影响黄金价格的长期决定因素,发现道琼斯价格指数、美国消费者价格指数、美元名义有效汇率、美国联邦基金利率、世界黄金储量都是影响黄金价格的长期决定性因素。但对应于不同的时期,影响黄金价格的长期因素不完全保持一致,即影响黄金价格的长期决定因素并不存在稳定性。从长期来看,黄金与美元的价格变动趋于一致。为此,建议中国政府将黄金作为金融资产组合的一部分,增加黄金在国际储备中的比重。 With the empirical analysis of the long-run determinants of gold price in three different periods,we find that the DJIA,the American CPI,the nominal effective exchange rate of dollar,Federal Funds rate and the world gold reserve are the long-run determinants of gold price,which are not stable.Finally,it is proposed that government of china should use gold as a part of financial Portfolio,and raise the portion of gold in international reserve.

作者刘曙光胡再勇

机构地区外交学院国际经济系

出处《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第2期35-41,共7页 World Economy Studies

关键词黄金价格长期决定因素稳定性黄金储备

分类号 F831.54 [经济管理—金融学] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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参考文献12

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二级参考文献15

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