内外均衡冲突下的人民币汇率政策选择:基于斯旺模型的研究

The choice of foreign exchange policy in China under conflict between internal and external equilibrium: a research based on Swan model

本文以斯旺模型为理论基础,研究了当前中国经济内外均衡冲突,并对内外均衡冲突下的汇率政策和货币政策之间的冲突进行了深入分析。根据斯旺模型,这两种冲突的解决要求当前实行紧缩国内支出政策和人民币升值政策的配合。因此,汇率政策的选择就变得至关重要。当然要解决当前经济内外均衡冲突,还需要其他政策的配合。

Based on Swan Model, this paper not only studies the conflict between internal and external equilibrium in China＇s economy, but also researches the conflict between monetary policy and foreign exchange policy. In the view of Swan Model, it requires the cooperation of expenditure contraction and RMB appreciation to solve the two conflicts. So in the long run, the reform of foreign exchange policy becomes crucial. Indeed, it requires other policies to settle the conflict between internal and external equilibrium.