社会经济安全条件下区域需水量预测方法

Prediction of water demand under the socio-economic security

提出了一种"社会经济安全"的量化方法(SD方法);将需水量预测方法和社会经济安全量化方法结合起来,建立了社会经济安全条件下的需水量预测模型(SSWDP模型);列举了在郑州市的应用实例。应用表明,建立的SSWDP模型可以较客观地分析社会经济安全状况及影响因素,确定社会经济安全条件下的区域需水量,为区域发展规划、供水工程规划以及节水规划提供科学依据。

A quantification method for socio-economic security was proposed. Then a prediction model of water demand under the socio-economic security （SSWDP model） was put forward based on the quantification method of socio-economic security and the predication method of water demand. Case study for the city of Zhengzhou indicates that the quantification method and SSWDP model can objectively analyze the socio-economic security state and influencing factors,determine regional water demand under socio-economic security, and offer scientific bases for planning of socio-economic development, water supply project and water saving.