灰关联分析在城市生态安全评价中的应用

Application of grey correlation analysis approach to the urban eco-security evaluation

城市生态安全评价是实现城市环境管理、协调城市经济发展与生态环境保护,实现城市可持续发展的重要手段。城市生态系统是一个灰色系统,受自然、环境和社会经济等各方面因素影响。基于灰关联原理,运用层次分析法建立城市生态安全评价体系并确定各影响因素的权重;结合动态趋势分析法,对郑州市2000—2004年的城市生态安全状况作了评价。结果表明,2000—2004年郑州市城市评价指标与理想状态指标的灰色关联度依次为0.6353、0.6547、0.6423、0.6560、0.6771。依据与关联度对应的城市安全等级划分标准,郑州市的安全等级为差。从动态趋势分析,郑州市的城市生态系统相对稳定,为可改善的不安全状态。

This article intends to report the authors＇ study on the application of the grey correlation analysis approach to the urban ecosecurity evaluation. Since the urban eeo-environment is composed of a whole grey system involving a lot of factors, such as natural, environmental, economic, social and some other factors, it has become essential to evaluate the urban eco-security qualities for the environment control as well as the relations between the eco-environment protection and the urban economic development so as to achieve the goal of the entire sustainable development of a city. However, as compared with the comprehensive ecosystem, urban eco-environment system is not complete and therefore can not be kept in its equilibrium of itself. For this reason, under the guidance and consultation of exports concerned, we have established an urban eeo-seeurity evaluation index system, taking into consideration all the essential factors that may have more or less effects on a city＇s actual eeo-security qualities, ineludes 14 indicators, such as those with its resource situation, environment protection situation and its economic development state. With the method of grey correlation analysis in application, our analysis also extends to the dynamic characteristics of urban eco-seeurity. As a result, the analysis indicates that there are different eco-security levels and different temporal and spatial scales to be evaluated and the dynamic assessment and the trend analysis must be done in an integrated way. Based on the factors cited above, we have aecomplisbed an analysis and evaluation of the eeo-seeurity quality situation with the city of Zhengzhou during the year of 2000 - 2004. The corresponding correlation degree compared to ideal conditions measures 0.635 3, 0.654 7, 0.642 3, 0.656 0, 0.677 1. This finding indicates that the urban eco-seeurity quality is poor, though the city＇ s eco-security quality is comparatively stable from the point of view of the dynamic tendency. Though the ecosystem can be said in an unsafe state, the situation can be expected to get improved. Thus, the present application can be said to have paved a new way to promote the urban eco-security study in establishing practical assessments.