2007年农产品贸易形势及2008年展望

Agro-Trade in 2007 ＆ its Prospects for 2008

据海关统计，2007年1—10月，我国累计进出口17，593．2亿美元，同比增长23．5％。其中出口9858．4亿美元，增长26．5％，进口7734．8亿美元，增长19．8％，进出口顺差达到2123．6亿美元，增幅59％。同期，我国农产品出口288_3亿美元，同比增长17．4％，进口325．8亿美元，同比增长22．6％。1—10月贸易逆差为37．5亿美元，同比增长86．8％。农产品出口占我国出口总额2．9％，进口占我国进口总额4．2％。

Favorable changes in trade structure have obviously appeared in 2007, due to domestically implemented macro-regulation in right place. Affected by the continued growth in global economy, strong demand and sustained revaluation of Euro and other currencies in most countries, China＇s import and export have maintained a rise as high as over 20%, with export being more than import continuously. In particular, the export of Chinese farm produce has been heavily pressed by the trade barrier measures, which are persistently adopted by foreign countries on the excuse of food safety. Under leadership of the Central Committee of CPC and the State Council, as well as countermeasures from the departments concerned and insiders, the export of agro-products in 2007 has still posted a surge with hard-won successes. However, the situation in 2008 will still be grim. It has to cope with on a proactive basis to secure a steady growth in export of farm produce. In terms of farm produce, China has now become the 5th largest exporter and 4th largest importer in the world. In recent 10 years, the advantageous agro-products like aquatic products, vegetables, fruits and livestock ＆ poultry meat have gradually dominated the export of Chinese farm produce. The structure in export products and market has been optimized with intensified product processing. The competitiveness and operating mode of Chinese export firms have progressively been strengthened and perfected. In 2008, there will be varied uncertainties in world economy. The impact of sub-lending problems in USA is being expanded increasingly. All major international institutions downgrade the common forecast for the growth rate of world economy and trade. The prices of petroleum seem to be difficult to drop from higher price list. The shortfall in farm produce market and tight supplies of raw material will result in higher prices in primary products continuously. The pressure of global inflation is surging with unstable factors still existing in financial market. The friction in trading agro-products will be likely further sharpened.