对当前我国宏观经济形势的判断及预测

Assessment and Forecasting of Macro-economic Situations in China

通过对2000年以来我国的经济周期、投资周期、消费周期、信用周期、价格周期和对全球经济周期的分析,本文对当前中国宏观经济形势的判断和预测是:当前中国经济正处在经济周期的高位,投资要求拉动作用在减弱,产能释放所引起的生产过剩风险在增大,有可能导致经济从繁荣走向衰退;受供给面影响,通货膨胀仍会持续,但不表明经济出现过热。2008年中国经济仍将维持10.5%以上的增长速度,通货膨胀率在5%～6%之间。

By analysing the economic, investment, consumption, credit, price and global economic cycles, the present text made the conclusion and forecasting as follows：Current Chinese economy is at high tide and investment pushing effect is weakening while the redundancy generated by the production capacities is more riskier, and the economy could probably go from prosperity to recession. On supply side, inflation will continue but not necessarily showing in the form of overheating. The growth rate for 2008 would be over 10.5%, with the inflation rate at 5%-6%.