中国劳动力的梯度转移与存变量分析

On Gradient Transfer and Stock and Variable Analysis of Labor Force in China

本文建立了三部门的劳动力梯度转移模型,利用指数增长模型进行中国未来劳动力产业分布的预测,估算出大约到2033年中国可以完成第一产业剩余劳动力向第二产业和第三产业的转移。并通过就业弹性的敏感度分析,得出剩余劳动力完成转移所需时间对第三产业有效就业弹性的变化更为敏感的特性。

Based on the labor force gradient transfer models of the three industries established in the paper, utilizing the Exponential Growth Model, the paper forecasts the labor force distribution among the three industries , and estimates that China＇s surplus labor transfer from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries would be accomplished by 2033. Through the analysis on the sensitivity of elasticity of employment, it is also found that the time needed for the completion of the surplus labor transfer is more sensitive to the effective employment elasticity of employment in the tertiary industry.