基于战斗方程的婚姻人口模型

A Marriage Population Model Based on Combat Equation

婚姻状况与人口再生产有着密切的关系,对婚姻数据进行研究具有实际意义。该文基于广泛应用于战斗毁伤研究的兰彻斯特方程,把特定人群中未婚人数的减少类比成战场上兵力的毁伤,把结婚速率类比成毁伤率,通过对现有人口统计数据的整理分析以及在结婚速率函数假设基础上的计算机模拟实验,得到了一个简洁的、能较好反映婚姻数据中未婚人口数量随年龄的变化规律的人口模型。在方法论上尝试了运用研究战争的方法研究婚姻人口问题,为人口模型的研究提供了一个新的思路。

Marriage status is close connected with population reproduction. There is an actual significance to research marriage data. Based on Lancherster equation widely used to calculate attrition in models of warfare, a given unmarried population＇s decrease is regarded as an analogy of forces attrition in battle, and the marriage rate is regarded as attrition rate. This paper analyzed actual statistical data and supposed marriage rate function, then computer experiments were made to fit the actual statistical data. In this way, a compact population model was gained that could preferably reflect the law of unmarried population changing with age. In the methodology, this paper attempted to study marriage population with method of warfare research, which is a new idea for the population model research.