ARIMA模型在麻疹预警中的应用

Application of ARIMA model in the early warning of measles

目的探讨时间序列ARIMA模型在麻疹预警应用中的可行性。方法利用SAS9.0统计软件对《国家疾病报告管理信息系统》报告的杭州市麻疹按周发病数建立ARIMA模型。结果对麻疹发病数序列建立季节模型ARMA(1,53),并与2005年麻疹发病数进行比较,能够及时、准确预警。结论ARIMA模型能够较好应用于麻疹预警,为疫情防控提供科学依据。

Objective The present study was conducted to explore the feasibility of time-series ARIMA model in the application of early warning of measles. Methods SAS 9,0 statistical software was used to conduct modeling of ARIMA model by weekly incidence of measles based on the measles cases reported through the ＂National Management Information System for Disease Reporting＂ Results It was found that season model ARMA （1,53） of measles case number series, together with comparison with the number of measles cases in 2005, contributed to timely and accurate warning, Conclusion ARIMA model can be applied to early warning of measles, providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic.