中国经济增长投入因子转复研究——从土地投入到技术投入的转变

Transformation of Input Factor from Land Input to Technology Input in the Economic Growth in China

为了探讨促进我国经济发展投入要素的适宜供给力度，文章在全面分析研究国内外关于土地投入与经济增长情况以及我国1981～2005年土地投入、资本投入、技术投入及劳动投入对中国经济贡献的基础上，根据2020年耕地保有量的底线18亿亩对土地投入规模进行了预测。研究结果表明：从1992年开始，我国要素投入已经开始向技术投入方向转变，其中技术投入所占贡献已经占相当的比重，其对我国经济增长的贡献率达38．48％；到2025年，经济增长对土地的需求会相对削弱。

In order to discuss the suitable supplying strength of input factors promoting the economic development in China, based on comprehensively analyzing the correlation between land input and economic growth at home and broad and the contribution of land, capital, technology and labor inputs to Chinese economy in 1981 - 2005, the scale of land input was predicted according to the bottom line （ 120 million hm^2） of reserved land quantity in 2020. researeh results showed that the input factor started transforming into the direction of technology input in China and the contribution of technology input to Chinese economic growth was up to 38.48% in 1992, Till 2025, the demand of economic growth for land would weaken relatively, These analyses provided some references for developing econolny in China.