黄淮海平原土地系统结构变化的模拟与分析

Simulation and Analysis of Structural Changes of Land System in Huanghuai-hai Plain

研究了黄淮海平原1988～2000年土地系统结构变化规律。通过在1km栅格尺度上建立空间显性计量经济模型，定量分析了自然、社会、经济等因素驱动土地系统结构变化的机理，并且结合每个1km栅格上的土地系统结构变化的不同情景，模拟了未来2000～2020年黄淮海平原每个1km栅格上土地系统结构变化规律。研究表明，1988～2000年，黄淮海平原土地系统结构变化以耕地向城镇居民地、工矿用地转移为主，林地呈增长的趋势。尽管2000～2020年参考情景、生态保护情景与经济发展情景下土地系统结构演替有所差异，但耕地减少、建设用地增加、林地增加的趋势是土地系统结构变化的主要方向。

The structural change law of land system in Huang-huai-hai Plain in 1988- 2000 were studied. Through establishing space dominant econometric model on the scale of 1 km grid, the mechanism of driving the structural change of land system by factors such as natural factor, social factor and economic factor were quantificationally analyzed. Combined with different situations of land system structural changes on each grid of 1 km, the structural change law of land system on each grid of 1 km in Huang-huai-hai Plain in 2000 - 2020 was simulated. The research indicated that the structural changes of land system in Hnang-huai-hai Plain 1988 - 2000 was mainly transfer from the cultivated land to urban residential land and industrial and mining land and the forest land showed an increasing trend. Although land system structural succession had difference under reference situation, ecological protection situation and economic development situation in 2000 - 2020, the trend of the decrease of cultivated land, the increase of construction land and forest land was main direction of land system structural changes.