中国单位GDP能耗与全要素生产率及工业化关系的实证分析

Empirical analysis of the relationship between per unit GDP energy consumption,TFP and industrialization CAI

运用单位根检验—协整检验—误差修正模型对1952-2006年间中国单位GDP能耗与全要素生产率的相关性进行了实证分析,计量结果显示:两者存在显著的线性负相关,全要素生产率的提高能有效地降低单位GDP能耗。然而,工业化会严重破坏两者的这种负相关关系,这可以解释1952-1977年间两者的正相关关系和2002年以后单位GDP能耗的再度上扬。单位GDP能耗、全要素生产率与工业化之间存在的这种实证关系,对于宏观经济政策制定具有重要的参考意义。

Applying the approach of unit root test, co-integration test, and error correction model the correlation between per unit GDP energy consumption （UGE） and total factor productivity （TFP） is analyzed during the period of 1952-2006. Econometric result shows that there is distinct and linear negative correlation between them, which indicates that improving TFP effectively decreases UGE. However, industrialization probably severely destroyed such negative correlation between UGE and TFP,which is useful to understand the abnormities during 1952-1977 and 2002-2006. The empirical relationship in UGE, TFP and industrialization are useful for policymakers to decide on macroeconomic situations.